Update, by Jerome. Rossi 'won' by 261 votes.
A less than 2000 vote margin leads to an automatic (machine) recount.
If the margin were less than 150 votes, the law says they must do a "hand" recount (no machines). But what if the machine recount leads to a margin of less than 150 votes-- would that necessitate a handcount? Or, would the ~$700K need to be paid to have a handcount? I would imagine it's worth the cost to have a shot at keeping Rossi out.
elevated by DemFromCT. There's several pockets of unfinished 2004 business, including this squeaker of a race.
Republican Rossi currently has a 187-vote lead of the Democrat Christine Gregoire. There are about 5200 ballots left to count in Washington, 1450 of them in King County.
If the remaining vote in every county breaks exactly according to how that county already voted, Rossi will add 350 votes to his lead for a 537-vote win (oh the irony...)
The good news is that Gregoire has been doing better than my projections thus far. Last Wednesday, I projected a 4400-vote Rossi win; on Friday, I projected a 3400-vote Rossi win. On Monday, I projected a 1400-vote Rossi win. Today, that is down to 537 votes.
Down to the wire.
Here's the data:
(County; %Gregoire; %Rossi; %Bennett; #ballots left)
Adams 30.0 68.4 1.6 0
Asotin 40.9 56.9 2.2 0
Benton 30.1 68.2 1.7 750
Chelan 34.7 63.5 1.8 0
Clallam 45.1 52.3 2.6 0
Clark 44.7 52.8 2.5 200
Columbia 32.3 66.0 1.8 0
Cowlitz 48.9 48.5 2.6 25
Douglas 32.9 65.4 1.6 0
Ferry 38.7 57.7 3.6 0
Franklin 31.3 67.3 1.4 250
Garfield 33.1 65.0 1.9 0
Grant 30.3 67.6 2.1 0
Grays Harbor 49.3 48.7 2.0 1221
Island 44.8 53.0 2.2 0
Jefferson 57.8 39.6 2.5 0
King 57.7 40.1 2.2 1450
Kitsap 48.0 49.3 2.6 100
Kittitas 38.3 59.9 1.7 0
Klickitat 43.8 53.4 2.9 100
Lewis 32.2 65.5 2.4 0
Lincoln 32.8 65.4 1.8 0
Mason 47.2 50.1 2.7 0
Okanogan 38.1 59.0 2.9 0
Pacific 50.9 46.2 2.9 0
Pend Oreille 42.0 55.1 2.9 0
Pierce 46.8 50.8 2.3 0
San Juan 59.6 37.2 3.2 0
Skagit 45.0 52.6 2.4 0
Skamania 45.3 51.1 3.6 50
Snohomish 47.7 49.9 2.3 0
Spokane 45.3 52.8 1.9 0
Stevens 35.3 61.8 2.8 600
Thurston 53.1 44.5 2.3 0
Wahkiakum 46.2 51.0 2.8 5
Walla Walla 35.2 63.1 1.7 100
Whatcom 50.0 47.6 2.5 100
Whitman 44.0 53.4 2.6 250
Yakima 34.3 63.8 1.9 0